Introduction to Analyzing Regressions

There is more to finding a regression than just drawing a graph.  The main reason for finding the equation which bests fits a set of data pairs is to understand the relationship between the quantities being studied.  The physical significance of the variables depends entirely on what type of quantities have been measured.

For example, imagine that a catering company uses the following data to decide how many napkins to provide for a dinner party, based on the number of people attending.
 

Napkin Order Form
No. of People No. of Napkins
  10 
  20 
  30 
  40 
  50 
  60 
  70 
  80 
  90 
100
  23 
  35 
   48 
  60 
  73 
  85 
  98 
110 
123 
135

By now it should be quite easy for you to enter this data into your calculator, plot it to see that it is linear, perform a regression to find the equation for the best-fit line, enter that equation into the calculator, and graph it on top of the data:

But what does all this mean?  To understand that, you have to understand the equation for a line and the significance of the slope and the intercept for any given data set.

In this case, with napkins on the y-axis and people on the x-axis, the slope (a=1.25 napkins/person) represents the average number of napkins each person will need.  For this data, a slope of 1.25 indicates that each person gets about one and a quarter napkins.  What this really means is that each person gets their own, with one extra for every four people.  (Perhaps one in four people is expected to spill something.)

The intercept (10 napkins) represents extra napkins which you should bring in addition to the 1.25 per person.

So the linear equation

y = 1.25x+10

can be "translated" into the statement
 
 

"Plan on needing about five napkins for every four people, plus an extra 10 napkins just to be safe."

Again, the important thing to remember is that the meaning of the constants from the regression equation depends entirely on the meanings of the numbers in the original data set.
 

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